市场资讯及洞察

Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) released its latest financial results before the opening bell in the US on Tuesday, beating analyst estimates for the third quarter. Company overview Founded: February 6, 1978 Headquarters: Atlanta, Georgia, United States Number of employees: 471,600 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Ted Decker (President & CEO), Craig Menear (Chairman) The results The US retailer reported revenue of $37.71 billion (down by 3% year-over-year) for Q3 vs. $37.591 billion expected. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $3.81 per share (down by 10.14% year-over-year), above $3.755 per share estimate.

CEO commentary "Our quarterly performance was in line with our expectations," Ted Decker, CEO of Home Depot said in a press release to investors. "Similar to the second quarter, we saw continued customer engagement with smaller projects, and experienced pressure in certain big-ticket, discretionary categories. We remain very excited about our strategic initiatives and are committed to investing in the business to deliver the best interconnected shopping experience, capture wallet share with the Pro, and grow our store footprint. In addition, our associates did an outstanding job delivering value and service for our customers throughout the quarter and I would like to thank them for their dedication and hard work," Decker added.

Shares of Home Depot rose by over 6% on Tuesday after the latest earnings results. The stock was trading at $307.06 a share – the highest level since 25/9/2023. Stock performance 1 month: +3.58% 3 months: -7.71% Year-to-date: -2.95% 1 year: -1.73% Home Depot price targets Stifel: $306 RBC Capital: $303 Truist Securities: $341 HSBC: $365 Jefferies: $384 Morgan Stanley: $350 Wedbush: $350 Wells Fargo: $360 Barclays: $333 JP Morgan: $335 Goldman Sachs: $350 Home Depot Inc. is the 26th largest company in the world with a market cap of $307 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.

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USD rallied strongly in Thursday’s session after a quiet start following dismal demand for US 30 year-treasuries at a scheduled bond auction, seeing yields surge and taking the USD with them. The push higher was later given an extra boost by Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish statements during a panel organized by the IMF. In a scheduled panel chat the FOMC head said that “policymakers are not confident that they have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance to return inflation to the 2.0% target in a sustained manner.” That was enough to see the USD bulls take charge with DXY up 0.4% for the day, while yields also spiked, this saw some volatility in USD cross pairs and gold we’ll look at the highlights in the charts below.

USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USDJPY pulled back last week after the BoJ tweak to their YCC saw Japanese bond yields rise, giving the Yen a boost. However, as has been the case with this pair in the last 12 months the uptrend quickly resumed, with USDJPY breaking back above the key 151 level and heading towards its 2022 and 2023 high of 151.72. At these levels there is always the threat of a BoJ currency intervention, so traders will need to keep an ear out for any jawboning from BoJ members telegraphing such a move.

If the BoJ steps aside a test of the upper trend line at 154 could be a possibility. If they do step in we could see a decline to a 146 handle and lower trendline before finding any technical support. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has reversed lower this week after the upward momentum failed at the key 2010 resistance level.

Risk premium priced into gold also started to unwind after gaza conflict haven flows pushed the price rapidly higher from early October. Thursday session did see a modest bounce, despite a rampant USD which could give the bulls some hope, however the 23.6 Fib level, which acted as short-term support on the way down now seems to have switched to resistance. This will be the level on the upside to watch (1963.78), the next resistance from a technical point of view will be the 2010 level.

To the downside the 38.2 Fib at 1934.79, which also matches up with the 200 day SMA looks to be the first real support level.

AUDUSD dropped in Tuesday’s session with AUD being weighed on post-RBA decision, as the less hawkish RBA guidance outweighed the widely anticipated 25bps hike to 4.35%. Though the market reaction was a little curious given the small changes to the accompanying statement hardly made it dovish. The RBA changed its forward guidance to say "whether further tightening of monetary policy is required...will depend upon the data" from the previous “Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required".

The push lower was also exacerbated by based weakness in the commodity space after a miss in Chinese trade data. Looking at the chart for trading opportunities we can see AUDUSD is trading in a defined range with major resistance at the 0.6500 level and major support at 0.6300 which opens up range trading opportunities with defined stop losses above or below these key levels, another key level is 0.6400 being the mid-price of the range and a level that price has chopped around recently. I think we are likely to see a bit more weakness in AUD on the back of the RBA and risk premiums coming out of gold and oil putting pressure on those commodities.

USDJPY continues to drift higher above the key 150 level into past intervention territory after the dip last week after the BoJ tweaked their YCC to extend the band, allowing Japanese yields to move higher and giving support the Yen. The drop in US yields over the past week and the modest gains in Japanese yields has seen the US 10-year / Japanese 10-year rate differential fall steeply, this rate differential has been a key driver of the USDJPY rate. However, as seen on the chart below USDJPY is remaining stubbornly high despite this, with a decent gap opening up between the rate differential and USDJPY rate.

Whether this gap “fills” i.e. a drop in USDJPY to reflect this rate differential is the question, going from the recent past it would look likely unless we see another leg higher in US yields. For Yen traders the October BoJ SOO released on Thursday will be the next decent data point to keep an eye on.

AUDUSD AUD saw gains to come within a whisker of the key 0.64 level, after hawkish leaning commentary from RBA Assistant Governor Kohler, who noted the decline in inflation is more gradual than previously thought. The Aussie also helped by a weaker USD and improved risk sentiment. The 0.64 level will be key in the near term as the mid-point of AUDUSD 3-month trading range is likely to act as resistance and support and will dictate which side of the range AUDUSD will be testing next.

USDJPY USDJPY rose to fresh peaks of 151.92 before a sharp move lower in the cross was observed without any clear catalyst which of course generated suspicions of intervention, especially given the move happened around 10am EDT, where intervention has occurred before. Also adding to the intervention narrative was comments from Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki during the Asian session where he spoke of “undesirable moves in the FX market”. USDJPY fell sharply from 151.92 to 151.19 but did retrace back to 151.70 after the dust settled, if this was a BoJ intervention it seems the 152 level may be the line in the sand and one to watch closely for Yen traders.

XAUUSD Gold rallied on Monday, recouping around half of Fridays losses after finding support at its the Oct lows to highs 38.2 fib retracement level which also matches up with the 200-day SMA. A weaker USD and falling yields also giving gold a boost along with residual safe haven demand.

Last week’s action in the FX markets was shaped by a pushback by the Fed chair Jerome Powell and assorted other Fed members on markets pricing in a less hawkish Fed going forward. What was seen as a dovish FOMC and a big miss in NFP the week before saw traders piling back into risk assets with traders hoping for a less aggressive Fed, it seemed pushback from Powell and company was inevitable, and pushback we got with a slew of hawkish comments from the Fed chair and his colleagues. USDOLLAR Last week’s fluctuations in the USD highlighted the influence of yields as the US Dollar index tracked the US 10-year yield almost tick for tick.

Key inflation figures from the US this week will test the Feds recent hawkish narrative with US CPI figures out on Tuesday and PPI out on Thursday. The US dollar index did stage a comeback last week, whether that comeback continues this week will be shaped by these figures one would expect. GBPUSD In the UK the recent hold in rates by the BoE has traders feeling that their rate hiking cycle is done and dusted with market pricing favouring another hold at the BoE December meeting with only a 9% chance priced in of a hike.

Sterling traders this week will be watching employment data out on Tuesday, UK CPI on Wednesday and retail sales on Friday. It would take some big beats to move the needle on rate hike expectations, but with limited data left after this week before the banks next meeting, these readings will take on extra importance. GBPUSD has been trading in an upward sloping channel since late September, the levels to watch over these announcements will be support at the lower band around 1.2170 and resistance at the top band around 1.2470.

AUDUSD The Aussie took a beating last week after what was widely seen as a dovish rate hike out of the RBA on Tuesday, AUDUSD had been testing major resistance at 0.6500 before reversing course and crashing down to 0.6340 by the end of the week. AUDUSD is now in the lower half of its 3-month range and finding some support but Chinese industrial production and Australian wage data on Wednesday along with Australian employment data Thursday could see the key support level at 0.63 is in play if these figures miss expectations. Full calendar of major news releases below: https://www.gomarkets.com/au/economic-calendar/

热门话题澳联储转鸽 利率维持4.35%周二澳联储利率决议公布，12月现金利率维持在 4.35% 不变。澳联储表示是否需要进一步收紧货币政策以确保通胀在合理的时间内恢复到目标水平将取决于数据和不断变化的风险评估。

上个月，澳联储在四个月保持利率稳定后，将利率提高了 25 个基点。这一决定反映了委员会的观点，即通胀率回到 2% 至 3% 目标范围的进展速度似乎慢于先前的预测。而本次澳联储再次转鸽维持利率不变的原因可能是月度CPI的超预期放缓：11月底公布的 10 月 CPI 增速 4.9%，低于市场普遍预期的 5.2%。10月CPI数据剔除波动性项目后增速5.1%，反映了通货膨胀在澳大利亚经济中的持续存在。月度通胀超预期放缓可能是本次澳联储再次维持利率的主要原因。

加息抑制支出，澳大利亚经济增速超预期放缓澳联储决议后，本周三公布的澳大利亚第三季度国内生产总值增长 0.2%，高于第二季度的 0.4%，低于市场预期的 0.4%。澳大利亚经济增速超预期放缓。季度GDP连续第八次增长，但增长速度在2023年有所放缓。该数据可能会缓解对需求驱动的通胀压力的担忧，澳联储有可能会在一段时间内保持按兵不动以评估经济寻求软着陆。

澳联储利率预期根据ASX联储利率预期追踪，可以看到10月CPI超预期放缓后，市场加息预期从67%下降至33%，而昨日澳联储不加息决议公布后，加息预期再次下降至目前的23%。

美联储12月不加息已成定局美联储将于12月12日至13日召开本年度最后一次货币政策会议。此前鲍威尔没有排除后续加息的可能性，称尚未决定12月是否加息，整体表态释放出鸽派信号。就业数据证实美联储在劳动力市场正常化方面取得实质性进展，支持美联储不加息甚至是降息。隔夜美国10月JOLTS职位空缺873.3万人，降至2021年以来最低，远低于市场预期。进一步表明美国劳动力市场正在降温。

根据芝商所利率观察工具，市场认为美联储不加息的概率接近100%，美联储12月会议不再加息而维持利率5.25-5.5%基本板上钉钉。市场预期博弈转向押注何时降息。

澳美货币对表现澳元/美元周二回调，尽管澳联储维持利率并不意外，市场反应较大。消息后半小时内澳元下挫0.44%，当日累计跌幅超1%，连续两日下跌并跌破200日均线，指向看跌信号。如果该货币对在接下来的几个交易日中无法收复该移动平均线，市场情绪可能会急剧恶化进一步下跌，短线关注下方0.65342位置。

免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Cecilia Chen | GO Markets 分析师