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The monthly Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision can drive volatility across the US dollar, US indices, gold and broader markets.
NFP is the monthly US jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It estimates the net change in paid workers across around 80% of the US workforce. The report is usually released on the first Friday of every month. It also includes two other closely watched numbers: the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings.
The Fed is the central bank of the United States. Its role is to support maximum employment and stable prices. It does this mainly by setting the federal funds target range, which is the benchmark for short-term US interest rates. That rate matters because it can influence borrowing costs, the US dollar, bond yields and wider financial conditions.
NFP and Fed decisions are closely linked. A stronger jobs report may suggest the economy is still running hot. That could increase inflation concerns and may support the case for higher rates, or for keeping rates higher for longer. A weaker jobs report may point to slower growth. That could increase the chance of rate cuts if inflation is also easing.
For traders, the key is often not whether the number is strong or weak on its own. The bigger market move usually comes from the gap between what markets expected and what actually happened.
| Event | Frequency | Timing | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Farm Payrolls, headline jobs print. | Monthly, usually first Friday. | 8:30 AM ET/10:30 PM AEST. | The benchmark read on US economic momentum and wage pressure. |
| Unemployment rate, labour market slack. | Released with NFP. | 8:30 AM ET/10:30 PM AEST. | Tracks the share of the workforce actively looking for work. |
| Average hourly earnings, wage growth. | Released with NFP. | 8:30 AM ET/10:30 PM AEST. | A lead indicator for inflation and a key input into Fed thinking. |
| FOMC rate decision, the headline call. | 8 per year, usually Tuesday to Wednesday. | 2:00 PM ET/6:00 AM AEST. | Sets the federal funds target range. It can move the USD, US indices and gold. |
| Fed Chair press conference, tone and guidance. | 30 minutes after the FOMC statement. | 2:30 PM ET/6:30 AM AEST. | Forward guidance from the Chair. It can sometimes move markets more than the rate decision itself. |
How a rate decision moves markets
By the time the Fed decision is released, part of the move may already be priced in.
That is because markets spend the weeks before each meeting reacting to data, speeches and changing rate expectations. The decision itself matters, but so does the statement, the press conference and any shift in tone from the Chair.
Monthly NFP and CPI reports can reshape rate expectations before each meeting.
Around two weeks before the meeting, the Fed releases a regional view of economic conditions across its 12 districts.
The committee meets behind closed doors to discuss the economy and set policy.
The federal funds target range and policy statement are released at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday.
At 2:30 PM ET, the Fed Chair answers questions. This can give markets more detail on how the Fed sees inflation, jobs and growth.
Minutes are released around three weeks later. The Dot Plot is released with the March, June, September and December decisions.
How traders use CFDs around NFP and Fed events
NFP and FOMC days can bring fast moves across the US dollar, indices, gold and yields. Markets can also move in both directions as traders react to the headline number, the detail behind it and the Fed’s tone.
Contracts for difference (CFDs) allow traders to take a view on rising or falling markets. They also allow traders to adjust position size and manage exposure during fast-moving conditions. CFDs are leveraged products. This means both gains and losses can be magnified, and losses can exceed the initial margin required to open a position.
Trade either direction on selected US dollar pairs, indices or gold as markets respond to economic data and Fed commentary.
NFP and FOMC volatility often concentrates in the minutes and hours around the release.
Stop loss and limit orders can help define risk before entry, although they do not remove risk. Spreads may widen and slippage can occur around major news events.
Access selected USD currency pairs, US indices, gold, commodities and share CFDs from one account.
The expected number or rate decision sets the starting point for the reaction.
A surprise in jobs, wages, unemployment, inflation or Fed guidance may shift market pricing.
The first move can be sharp, but the second move may depend on whether traders see the result as temporary or meaningful for the broader rate outlook.
Trade selected US dollar pairs, US indices, gold and global share CFDs with GO Markets.
References to NFP, FOMC decisions, federal funds rate ranges, market reactions and economic data on this page are illustrative only, based on publicly available information at the time of publication, and may change without notice.